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forecast actual demand error
1Q 2019 215
2Q 2019 210
3Q 2019 220
4Q 2019 225
1Q 2020 255
2Q 2020 240
3Q 2020 260
4Q 2020 270
1Q 2021

1. Using the 4 quarter moving average: What is the forecast for 2Q 2020, 3Q 2020, 4Q 2020, and 1Q 2021
2. Compute the forecast for 2Q 2020, 3Q 2020, 4Q 2020, and 1Q 2021using exponential smoothing (start with 2Q 2020) with a smoothing factor of .6.
3. Which forecast method provides a more accurate forecast?
4. Compute the forecast for 2Q 2020, 3Q 2020, 4Q 2020, and 1Q 2021 using a weighted moving average technique. The most recent period (for 2Q 2020 that will be 1Q 2020) is weighted at .5, second most recent at .35, and 3rd most recent at .15.
5. Compare the results from 4 to the results from 1 and 2. Now which forecast provides the more accurate forecast?
6. If the exponential smoothing is calculated using a smoothing factor of .8 will the forecast error be smaller or larger?

 

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