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BE/BF 450 Homework 5
In this homework, we use the data on textbook Page 107 “The impact of September 11 on Air Travel in the US”. Data details are described on Page 107 for reference. This homework requires SPSS analyses (R is acceptable as well, Excel cannot perform the analyses below). Our first step is data partition: split the time series into two parts, pre-September 11 and post-September 11. (Do not forget define time-series data.)
a) Fit a linear regression models to Air, Rail, and Auto. For Air and Auto, fit a linear trend. For Rail, use a quadratic trend. Report ANOVA results as well. Discuss the results.
b) Run a seasonal decomposition for Air series with multiplicative seasonality and show the results output.
c) Which of the following smoothing methods would be adequate for forecasting this series? Discuss your results.
Simple exponential smoothing
Holt’s linear exponential smoothing
Winter’s additive exponential smoothing
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